United Kingdom
Available since: Phase 5 (2026)
All UK reference tables follow the shared demographic data model (age 0–100 × sex, long CSV).
Baseline
Section titled “Baseline”The baseline is the configuration the tool opens with — official ONS and DWP reference data. Total fertility rate ≈ 1.39; base population ≈ 69.3 M.
| Variable | Baseline data set | Vintage | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | UK 2024 (ONS) | 2024 | start-of-projection |
| Fertility | ONS NPP 2024-25 | 2024–2025 | held flat |
| Mortality | ONS 2022-2024 | 2022–2024 | improves −0.5%/yr ×10y |
| Migration | ONS NPP 2024-25 (constant) | 2024–2025 | held flat |
| Sex ratio at birth | 1.05 | — | standard biological ratio |
Any input can be changed or fine-tuned — see how to model demography.
Available data sets
Section titled “Available data sets”The dropdowns in the tool currently offer, per variable:
- Population — UK 2024 (ONS): Office for National Statistics, 2024-based National Population Projections, jump-off (base) year population by single year of age and sex.
- Fertility — ONS NPP 2024-25: Office for National Statistics projected age-specific fertility rates by single year of age of mother, a genuine measured single-year series (no band graduation needed, unlike the US data set).
- Mortality — ONS 2022-2024: Office for National Statistics national life tables, a 3-year rolling period, qx by single year of age and sex.
- Migration — ONS NPP 2024-25 (constant): Office for National Statistics projected net international migration by age and sex.
Additional data (History tab)
Section titled “Additional data (History tab)”| Series | Coverage | Source |
|---|---|---|
Mortality qx / life tables (M/F/Both) |
1922–2022 | HMD — United Kingdom |
| Deaths by age × sex | 1922–2022 | HMD — United Kingdom |
These power the life-expectancy history (with projection overlay), the
mortality heatmap (isolines / age guides), qx-at-ages and the animated deaths
tree. No WHO HALE series is shipped for the United Kingdom yet, so the HALE
chart is unavailable. The recipient_share reference set (State Pension
caseload as a share of population) uses a single age-65 threshold rather than
a measured age/sex curve — DWP doesn’t publish a static breakdown outside its
Stat-Xplore query tool — see
the engine data README
for the full source list and known limitations.
Activated models
Section titled “Activated models”| Model | Status |
|---|---|
| Demography | ✅ Active |
| Pensions | 🔜 planned |
| Disability | 🔜 planned |
| Long-term care | 🔜 planned |