Spain
Available since: Phase 3 (2024)
All Spanish reference tables follow the shared demographic data model (age 0–100 × sex, long CSV).
Baseline
Section titled “Baseline”The tool opens on a baseline that reproduces the official INE 2024–2074 projection: it defaults to the INE Central migration path together with the INE population and fertility and HMD mortality (with the default mortality improvement). Total fertility rate ≈ 1.14; base population ≈ 47.4 M.
| Variable | Baseline data set | Vintage | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | Spain 2022 (INE) | 2022 | start-of-projection |
| Fertility | INE 2024 (TFR ≈ 1.14) | 2024 | held flat |
| Mortality | HMD 2023 | 2023 | improves −0.5%/yr ×10y |
| Migration | INE Central | 2024 | INE projection path (declining) |
| Sex ratio at birth | 1.05 | — | standard biological ratio |
Any input can be changed or fine-tuned — see how to model demography.
Available data sets
Section titled “Available data sets”Per variable, the dropdowns offer:
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Population — Spain 2022 (INE): INE — Population figures.
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Fertility — INE 2024 (TFR ≈ 1.14): INE — Births & fertility.
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Mortality — HMD 2023: HMD — Spain.
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Migration — four paths from the INE Population Projections 2024–2074; the table fixes the age–sex shape, the scenario sets the yearly total (see the full path under Show projections → Total by year):
Scenario Net migration path Constant ~626 k/yr, held flat INE Central declining to ~300 k/yr (default) INE High declining to ~410 k/yr INE Low declining to ~175 k/yr The INE variants follow INE’s 2024–2073 trajectory (starting well above the 626 k/yr constant level and tapering to the target); a fine-tuning trend can be layered on top.
Additional data (History tab)
Section titled “Additional data (History tab)”| Series | Coverage | Source |
|---|---|---|
Mortality qx / life tables (M/F/Both) |
1908–2023 | HMD — Spain |
| Deaths by age × sex | 1908–2023 | HMD — Spain |
| Healthy life expectancy (HALE) | 2000–2020 | WHO GHO — HALE |
These power the life-expectancy history (with projection overlay), the mortality heatmap (isolines / age guides), qx-at-ages, the animated deaths tree and the WHO HALE chart.
Pensions
Section titled “Pensions”Spain and the USA have pension reference data today, including the Finance layer described below (see United States for its own Coverage, Macro, and Finance figures — a real OASDI payroll tax, average earnings/benefits, and Trust Fund balance, not a placeholder). This section lists the 2026 reference figures the tool loads as defaults — every one of them is editable per scenario in Pensions/Inputs and Pensions/Finance.
Contributors
Section titled “Contributors”~22.4 M people contribute to the system, split across two regimes:
| Regime | Share of contributors | Average gross annual earnings |
|---|---|---|
| General (RG) | ~85% | €32,057 (men) / €26,905 (women) |
| Self-employed (RETA) | ~15% | €24,600 (flat, both sexes) |
Contribution rates (both regimes): 28.30% to the pay-as-you-go pension core, plus 0.90% routed to the intergenerational reserve/MEI mechanism. For RETA, the tool uses a flat average contribution instead of the real 15-tier, income-based quota system — a documented simplification, not a measurement.
Beneficiaries
Section titled “Beneficiaries”~10.45 M contributory pensions are in force across six types, each with its own average monthly amount:
| Benefit type | Avg (€/mo) — men | Avg (€/mo) — women |
|---|---|---|
| Jubilación (retirement) | 1,785.01 | 1,255.57 |
| Viudedad (widowhood) | 639.90 | 960.07 |
| Incapacidad Permanente (disability) | 1,265.90 | 1,106.08 |
| Orfandad (orphanhood) | 526.49 | 520.48 |
| Favor familiar | 818.29 | 818.29 |
| PNC (non-contributory) | 643.04 | 643.04 |
Jubilación’s age profile assumes today’s statutory retirement age of 65 — editable per scenario in Pensions/Inputs’ “Effective retirement age” block, which can ramp it to a target over N years and shifts the Contributors/Jubilación age curves accordingly (see how to model pensions).
(Persons vs. pensions: ~9.45 M people hold ~10.45 M pensions between them — someone can draw more than one benefit at once, so the two counts are kept separate rather than merged.)
Clases Pasivas
Section titled “Clases Pasivas”A distinct, closed cohort of 710,000 retired state employees (€2,500/mo
average), modeled separately from the general contributory system because
it has no contributors of its own — it’s financed by transfer, not by a
payroll base still being replenished. New entrants are added for 15 years
(a documented modeling horizon), then the cohort only shrinks by mortality.
System scale (2026)
Section titled “System scale (2026)”Total public pension expenditure ≈ €229.5 billion, around 13% of GDP — a useful plausibility check against whatever your own Finance scenario produces on the Deficit/Surplus or Expenditure-by-category charts.
A note on data quality
Section titled “A note on data quality”These figures blend hard administrative totals (e.g. pensions in force,
statutory contribution rates) with interpolated or proxy estimates where
the official data doesn’t break down finely enough for the model (e.g.
splitting a 10-year age band into single years, or RETA’s income
distribution). Where a real measurement wasn’t available, the tool uses the
best available substitute and documents the choice — see
docs/data-sources/spain-pension-reference-data.md in the project
repository for the full source-by-source breakdown, including every
substitution and its rationale.
Activated models
Section titled “Activated models”| Model | Status |
|---|---|
| Demography | ✅ Active |
| Pensions | ✅ Active |
| Disability | 🔜 planned |
| Long-term care | 🔜 planned |