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ScenarioPulseScenarioPulse

Getting Started

Open the tool

Section titled “Open the tool”

Go to app.scenariopulse.com. No sign-in required to run projections.

If the service has been idle, the first request may take 30–60 seconds to wake it up — a progress screen will appear automatically.

How ScenarioPulse works, in one sentence

Section titled “How ScenarioPulse works, in one sentence”

ScenarioPulse takes a country’s demographic baseline, applies whatever assumptions you pick about fertility, mortality and migration, and projects how the population evolves year by year. On top of that projection, a pension model turns the numbers into contributors, beneficiaries, revenue and expenditure. Every chart you get is one scenario — one specific set of assumptions — never “the forecast”: the point of the tool is comparing several side by side, not picking a single number.

COUNTRY BASELINE                    SCENARIO SETTINGS
population, fertility,              projection period,
mortality, migration            +   changed assumptions
        │                                   │
        └─────────────────┬─────────────────┘
                           ▼
          DEMOGRAPHY MODEL (cohort-component)
   ages each cohort forward a year, applies mortality,
      adds births from fertility, applies migration
                           │
                           ▼
           POPULATION BY AGE × SEX × YEAR
     age structure · cohort trends · country comparison
                           │
                           ▼
     PENSIONS: Coverage → Macro → Finance (optional,
        built on top of a Demography scenario —
              see "Beyond demography" below)

See how the model works for the full four-stage pipeline and how scenarios chain together.

Pick a country

Section titled “Pick a country”

The Country dropdown at the top switches between Spain, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom (the tool opens on Spain by default). Each country loads its own official baseline — the starting population plus the default fertility/mortality/migration assumptions used for the projection. A baseline is observed statistics turned into a starting point, not a forecast in itself: the projection only begins once you add a scenario. See the country catalog for what data backs each one, and which further models (Pensions) are active for it today (Spain and the USA; Russia and the UK have Demography only so far).

Run a scenario

Section titled “Run a scenario”
  1. Stay on the Demography layer and the Inputs tab (the tool opens here). The population / fertility / mortality / migration data sets are pre-loaded from the country’s baseline — these are the model’s inputs, not something you need to set up.
  2. Set the scenario’s own settings: the projection period (start year and how many years to forecast), and, optionally, changes to the loaded fertility/mortality/migration assumptions — leave them as-is for a first run, or fine-tune them (see how to model demography).
  3. Name the scenario and click Add scenario.

The projection appears on the chart within seconds — one line per scenario, plus a table of each scenario’s data sets and horizon below the chart.

Read the results

Section titled “Read the results”

The model itself produces population by age, sex and year, and age-band totals (e.g. 16–64 vs. 65+) computed from it. The tool then presents that in a few ways:

  • Outputs tab — the population as an animated age–sex pyramid, and cohort trends by age band, with CSV export.
  • Compare countries (top nav) — the same metrics (age structure, mortality, fertility, migration) side by side across all four countries.

The History tab is a different kind of thing: it’s observed data — historical mortality and life expectancy — used to understand and calibrate the baseline, not an output the model generates. Coverage varies by country — see each country’s page.

Add a second scenario

Section titled “Add a second scenario”

Change one or more parameters and click Add scenario again. The new run joins the chart alongside the first — this is the “fan of forecasts”. Add as many as you like; see Understanding Scenarios for how the chart and scenario list work.

Beyond demography: Pensions

Section titled “Beyond demography: Pensions”

Demography is the first of four stages. Pin a Demography scenario (📌 in Demography/Outputs) and it becomes the base for a Pensions scenario — contributors and beneficiaries (Coverage), then GDP/wage/ price growth (Macro), then contribution revenue and benefit expenditure (Finance). This is currently available for Spain and the USA — see how to model pensions for the screen-by-screen walkthrough.

Save and share

Section titled “Save and share”

Sign in with Google or LinkedIn to Save a scenario to My Reports, kept indefinitely, and Share it as a public, read-only link. You can also upload your own custom reference data (My Data) to use in place of a built-in one — see Saving and Sharing for both.

Next steps

Section titled “Next steps”